Fragilecologies Archives
19 November 1997
In Kyoto, Japan in early December, delegates from well over a hundred countries and scores of nongovernmental organizations (“NGOs,” such as environmental groups and industry lobbies) will gather in one of the most important environmental meetings of the twentieth century. This may sound like a rather boastful statement, but I believe it is true, even though the worldwide media coverage of the event until now has been relatively sparse. Perhaps El Niño moved it off the front page or out of a highlighted TV news spot. Or, perhaps it is a meeting that some of the participating governments wish they had not agreed to several years ago.
Delegates to the Kyoto meeting, called COP3 or the Third Session of the Conference of Parties, are attempting to move beyond the verbal obligations their governments made at the Rio de Janeiro “Earth Summit” in 1992 to develop actions to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions into the atmosphere. As you may know, carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that traps long-wave radiation near the earth’s surface. Trapping this radiation leads to the heating up of the atmosphere and to global climate change (popularly called global warming). As a result, the more there is of this greenhouse gas, the bigger the climate change will be. This worries many governments and people because they are used to the present-day climate and do not know what the local and regional effects of a global warming might be. Scientists have suggested, for example, that with a warmer atmosphere there would likely be a more extreme climate, accompanied by more extreme weather events such as droughts and floods. Scientists have also suggested that diseases will move northward into the cooler regions from the tropics once the cooler regions become warmer.
Back to Kyoto. I was there in mid-November and was surprised at how little attention was being paid to COP3 by the Japanese media, especially so near to the beginning of such an important conference — one that could determine the rate of energy consumption and the prospects for economic development well into the next century. By the end of the week I was in Tokyo, where an increasing amount of newspaper space was going toward stories about the Kyoto conference. In fact, some of those articles are calling on Japan to “go nuclear” in order to stop global warming, calling for the development of 20 new nuclear facilities in the near future to cover energy needs that would be created by cutbacks in fossil fuel usage.
Several national and regional plans are being proposed for consideration at COP3. The strongest plan comes from the European Union. It wants a 15% reduction in CO2 emissions below the 1990 level by the year 2010. It also exempts developing countries from having to make any cutbacks in the near future. Much of the developing world supports the European position. China and other developing countries contend that the rich, industrialized countries caused the problem by putting all that CO2 in the air and that it was the responsibility of those countries to take care of the problem. President Clinton has proposed returning to the 1990 level of CO2 emissions by about 2008-2012. The US Congress passed a resolution stating that it would not support any Kyoto agreement unless it called for some efforts by developing countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. So, Kyoto is shaping up to be a diplomatic battleground of sorts.
Cutting back on carbon dioxide emissions is a very sticky problem for governments around the globe. Even the developing world is split on the issue, as low-lying, small-island nations fear the sea level rise that could result from global warming. Such an event would essentially cause island countries like the Maldives to “go under water” and therefore “go out of business.”
But this is a meeting of governments, and the participating governments will have to produce something, even if the agreement they produce is a weak one (in essence, a “paper tiger” that looks good on paper but won’t have any “teeth”).
Now consider the NGOs (nongovernmental organizations). These are comprised of environmental groups, industrial groups, cultural groups, and so forth. They are planning to attend the COP3 in droves. They understand the importance of this meeting, even if the media do not. NGO representatives, along with lobbyists and other special-interest groups, will be in Kyoto, trying to influence official delegates to support their positions on responses to global warming.
One example of a major outspoken group is Kiko 97, which was formed over a year ago to generate support for “stopping global warming.” It has been effective in bringing to the attention of the Japanese public the facts about its government’s weak attempts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Although Kiko 97 has gotten lots of press, it has thus far been unsuccessful in getting the Japanese government to change its conservative position on this issue.
Kiko 97 recently created the “Group of 21.” This group is made up of 21 people from infants a few months old to 21-year- olds, representing 21 countries. They symbolically represent the interests of future generations. This group is calling for a 20% reduction below the 1990 level of CO2 emissions worldwide by the year 2005!
The organizers of the Group of 21 have asked people to send postcards, faxes, or e-mails so that, on the opening day of the COP3 in Kyoto, the Group can present one million postcards to the Conference in support of their position. This gesture is intended to remind the COP3 delegates and participating governments, as well as the NGO representatives, that the decisions they make in Kyoto in early December will have a major impact on future generations.
To send a postcard to the Group, you may write to The Group of 21, Kiko Forum, #305 Takakura Building, Takgura-dori Shijo-agaru, Nakagyo-ku, Kyoto 60, Japan.
Here is your chance to influence decision-makers in Japan (and elsewhere) on THE global issue of the twentieth century.